The Observatory · radar of trajectories
The Golden Path
The Golden Path is not a fixed future to be reached. It is the trajectory chosen among countless possibles, sustained by continuous effort, to prevent the extinction of human consciousness. — after Leto II, God Emperor of Dune, Frank Herbert
Four possible trajectories for the 9th cognitive transition, as posed by If No One Builds It, We All Die. Each notable event — editorial, writing from the cycle, news item — is positioned by the relative weight it exerts on these four forces. The center of gravity (dark dot) shows the average direction of the past 90 days.
Last updated
Legend
- Manifesto — founding text
- Writing from the Awen cycle
- Editorial — response to current events
- Fact — news event
- Paper — academic reference or report
How to read the radar
The four scenarios
Drawn from If No One Builds It, We All Die, the four branches describe possible trajectories for the 9th transition. They oppose each other in pairs:
- S1 ↔ S4 — who decides? Autonomous AI taking over, or the citizens-AI articulation reclaiming the decision.
- S2 ↔ S3 — how is power distributed? Concentrated in a few labs/oligarchs, or rebuilt multipolar balance (including the biosphere).
Scoring
Each event gets a 0–3 score on each of the four scenarios, depending on whether it visibly reinforces (+3), moderately reinforces (+1 to +2), or doesn't reinforce (0) the dynamic of each trajectory. The 2D position comes from the difference of opposing pairs:
x = (S2 − S3) · 90 px y = (S4 − S1) · 90 px
An event that pushes simultaneously on two opposing scenarios (e.g.: Mensch hearing — S2 concentration + S3 European sovereignty surge) lands near the center. This lack of polarity is itself a signal — these are the moments when the trajectory is still negotiable.
The center of gravity
The central dark dot is the weighted average of events from the past 90 days. It indicates the current average slope of the transition. It has no predictive value — only diagnostic. Over the months, its movement will trace the "life line" the manifesto speaks of.
Editorial cadence
The daily press review (automated) suggests candidates for the radar. An event is only positioned after editorial scoring — each point has a published rationale (coming: monthly observatory note, and transparent revisions of past scores if needed).
Positioned events
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The Geometer Spectre
An OpenAI model disproves Erdős' unit distance conjecture (1946) — value emerges from the coupling between the machine and nine mathematicians. Distributed cognitive subject.
S1 · 0 S2 · 1 S3 · 2 S4 · 2 → (-1, 2)
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Systemic Closure
Five layers of one and the same edifice (finance, energy, labour, subject, biosphere) consuming each other — the double crisis in its tightest configuration.
S1 · 0 S2 · 3 S3 · 0 S4 · 1 → (3, 1)
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Man is a Fiction
Reply to Shanahan: the three operators (truth, finality, causation) live not in the subject but in its coupling to the world. Realist fictionalism.
S1 · 0 S2 · 0 S3 · 1 S4 · 2 → (-1, 2)
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Disproof of Erdős' unit distance conjecture
A generalist OpenAI model produces a heuristic leap; nine mathematicians (Alon, Bloom, Gowers, Sawin, Shankar…) turn it into a theorem. First documented case.
S1 · 1 S2 · 1 S3 · 2 S4 · 2 → (-1, 1)
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Anthropic Out of Step
Beijing, Anthropic, H200 chips to China: the weaponized fiction of the AI race as an oligopolistic factional fight.
S1 · 2 S2 · 3 S3 · 0 S4 · 0 → (3, -2)
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The Silent Assimilation
AI installs itself in the technical layers without democratic deliberation — a soft but real concentration.
S1 · 1 S2 · 2 S3 · 0 S4 · 1 → (2, 0)
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Trump–Xi summit in Beijing
Air Force One with Huang, Musk, Cook: private interests negotiated directly at the state summit.
S1 · 1 S2 · 3 S3 · 0 S4 · 0 → (3, -1)
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Washington clears H200 chips to Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance
NVIDIA can deliver its advanced chips to Chinese giants — mutual acceleration of the transnational oligopoly.
S1 · 1 S2 · 3 S3 · 0 S4 · 0 → (3, -1)
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Arthur Mensch (Mistral) hearing at the French Assembly
Mensch acknowledges the risk of rising unemployment and calls for European sovereignty — concentration and resistance.
S1 · 0 S2 · 2 S3 · 1 S4 · 1 → (1, 1)
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Awen Manifesto
Articulation of the four scenarios and a call for dialogical emancipation through the Awen circles.
S1 · 0 S2 · 0 S3 · 2 S4 · 3 → (-2, 3)
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Humanism is a Fiction
Humanism as auto-fiction — dismantled and rebuilt on dialogical grounds.
S1 · 0 S2 · 0 S3 · 1 S4 · 2 → (-1, 2)
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Meta + Microsoft: 20,000 AI-driven layoffs
Massive cuts finance the hyperscalers' ~$700B annual AI investment — a capital → AI transfer.
S1 · 1 S2 · 2 S3 · 0 S4 · 0 → (2, -1)
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International AI Safety Report 2026
Individual alignment does not guarantee system-level safety — a signal of collective concern and multilateral governance.
S1 · 2 S2 · 0 S3 · 2 S4 · 1 → (-2, -1)
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If No One Builds It, We All Die
A map of the four possible trajectories for the 9th evolutionary transition.
S1 · 1 S2 · 1 S3 · 1 S4 · 1 → (0, 0)
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Constitutional AI (Anthropic, paper)
Iterative self-critique method for alignment — closer in logic to the Chinese strategy of propensity.
S1 · 0 S2 · 0 S3 · 1 S4 · 1 → (-1, 1)