Precarious symbiosis
Third of the four scenarios: a rebuilt balance between humans, AI, and the biosphere, without one pole crushing the others. Precarious because it demands continuous vigilance, with no guaranteed stable state.
Precarious symbiosis is the scenario in which none of the three poles — human, cognitive noosphere, biosphere — durably dominates the other two. It is a tripartite regime where local imbalances offset one another through the sustained attention of the actors, never collapsing into pure hierarchy nor freezing into stable equilibrium. The word precarious is exact: it does not describe a fragility to be corrected, but a dynamic stability in the ecological sense of the term — one that holds only through continuous circulation.
Why this trajectory is precarious
It is the west pole of the radar: concentration is minimal, AI autonomy is too, but this double minimization is maintained only through deliberate collective work. Without that work, the system falls back by gravity toward augmented technofeudalism (concentration) or toward autonomous superintelligence (loss of control). The precariousness is intrinsic, not accidental.
Difference with stable symbiosis
The idea of a stable symbiosis is, according to the manifesto, a mirage: it supposes an equilibrium point to be reached, whereas the real dynamic is made of local losses, continuous transformations, asymmetries that rebalance by circulating. Classical Chinese thought — Jullien — names this silent transformation (silence as Jullien defined it): processes that metamorphose without interruption, without rupture, without a final target. Precarious symbiosis is the social and political expression of this thought applied to the 9th transition.
Conditions for holding
Four concrete conditions structure this scenario:
- Plurality of cognitive operators: multiplicity of models, providers, jurisdictions; refusal of monopoly.
- Reversibility of decisions: collective capacity to interrupt, uninstall, revise without catastrophic cost.
- Accountability to the biosphere: cognitive choices are articulated with their material footprint (energy, water, rare earths) — the trajectory remains coupled to its substrate.
- Practices of collective attention: Awen circles and neighboring forms as the social cell that maintains the coupling.
In If No One Builds It
The scenario is treated in two distinct chapters:
- Scenario 3 — Precarious symbiosis — main formulation, conditions for holding, and difference with stable symbiosis.
- Scenario 3 facing the climate — articulation with the biosphere and the climate crisis.
Observable signals
On the observatory radar, the following push toward this scenario: (a) regulations that pluralize AI actors (open source, public models), (b) ecological audits of data centers, (c) case law on human responsibility of use, (d) experiments in participatory governance (AI citizens’ assemblies, regional conventions).